Even if there is an exodus of vessels over the next two weeks it is unlikely that there will be a return to normal operations according to BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen.
It is unlikely, however, that there will be a rush to exit the Gulf added Rasmussen, who pointed out that the navigable area, which consists of a traffic separation scheme, with a 2 mile wide inbound and a similar width for outbound traffic, while the two lanes are separated by a two mile buffer zone.
BIMCO believes that if too many vessels try to leave at once that could increase the possibility of groundings or collisions in the narrow channels, so some may attempt to load cargo while they await Iranian and US technical details on how ships can leave safely.
As far as possible, ships will load cargoes before departing the Gulf, “but only if loading does not jeopardize the chance of leaving within the two weeks,” said Rasmussen, who added, “Unless the two-week window is quickly lengthened, I doubt there will be a large influx of ships into the Persian Gulf.”
This is partly because many ships have already been redeployed and are now in different regions, but also, owners are wary of their ships becoming trapped again when the two-week window closes.
Chief safety and security officer, Jakob Larsen also pointed out that Iran’s severely depleted military could lead to misunderstandings between the commanders and those actually firing the weapons.
“Such misunderstandings could potentially lead to unintended targeting and attacks on ships approved for transit,” said Larsen, who added that reports suggest “Iran still has significant amounts of weapons to control shipping through the Strait, including antiship missile, drones, fast attack craft, coastal artillery, and mines.”
There will be no naval escorts of commercial vessels along with the lingering uncertainty around the “practical implementation of the ceasefire”.
US vice-president, JD Vance, on his way to peace talks in Pakistan, said the American government was “looking forward to the negotiations”, but he warned if the Iranians “try to play us”, he said the US won’t be receptive.
In an indication of just how fragile this ceasefire is Israel has, however, continued to attack Lebanon prompting Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh to call the attacks a “grave violation” of the two-week ceasefire agreement.
Since Khatibzadeh made that statement, on 9 April, Vance, has said that a ceasefire in Lebanon was never a part of the initial agreement.
source: https://www.seanews.co.uk/blog/bimco-no-short-term-return-to-persian-gulf
